California
Has Done It Again….
EPA
Grants Petition for Lower Engine Standard
Well, just when the light at the end of the tunnel
was drawing near, the trucking industry is again seeing the one eyed freight train of
environmental regulation headed right at them. This week the EPA released
a response the petition filed by CARB, SCAQMD and SJAPCD et al. requesting a federal rulemaking
for a lower NOx engine standard to take effect in 2024. EPA has granted their
request and will begin a 24 month technical research period with a
rulemaking coming in 2019 for a 2024 implementation date.
While this may all
sound familiar, these new standards are not the kind that are designed to
enhance fuel economy, like the Phase 1 and Phase 2 GHG standards,( Click
here for More Info ) these are the
type that directly control criteria pollutants and tend to degrade fuel
economy. In this case, the criteria pollutants under control are the directly
emitted oxides of nitrogen or NOx, which forms ozone in the atmosphere when it
reacts with sunlight, eventually resulting the ever familiar shroud of smog that
blankets many major cities and metropolitan areas in the world.
Since California is under strict federal standards
to meet National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) for Ozone attainment, their
main focus to meet those standards outside of recent rulemakings, is the low
NOx engine standard. Now that CARB is done decimating the in-state fleet
through in-use rules, they have been granted passage into the next phase of
their quest for clean air, a federal engine standard that no one can escape.
The challenge in California, especially southern
California and the central valley, is that the NAAQS cannot be met without a
lower federal NOx engine standard because the majority of trucks operating on
California roads are from out of state.
These fleets (for the most part) turn over to newer
engine technology through natural attrition due to higher mileage accumulation
and therefore avoid in-use standards because the technology they are using is
ahead of the California rules. So, enter the federal government. With a federal standard (More
Info) the natural turnover would eventually lead to the implementation of the
lower NOx standard across the out of state fleet with the in-state legacy fleet
following close behind. In theory anyway (cue the Pre-Buy!).
Of course there will be a formal rulemaking
procedure beginning sometime in 2019, where California will be leading the
charge for the standard they feel they need, the .02 standard, while the OEM’s
and possibly the EPA might take a more reasonable approach with a slightly
higher, but lower than current standard, possibly with a maintenance and warranty
enhancement such as the ARB is currently pursuing.
The new administration has been quiet on the new
engine standard so far. Nevertheless, any attempt in unwinding what the Golden
State has started may prove more complicated then it appears. The first hurdle
is that California is mandated to meet the NAAQS as directed by the Clean Air Act
.If they can't meet the goals, the EPA steps in to do it for them.
The quandary for the new administration will boil down to if they are going to play
nice with California or face imminent litigation which will result in California
getting their way anyway. Unless congress changes the clean air act, California
will get its engine standard one way or another nationwide or California only.
For the golden state, there is no other way and currently, the EPA agrees.
Based on California’s emissions modeling , they
cannot meet the federal standards without the low NOx engine. It has been made
clear to industry and everyone else that the 2010 technology will not be enough
to get them to their attainment goals. This is relatively bad news for a just
recently beat up California based trucking industry. While the ARB has given
indication that no new, in-use, on-road rules will be implemented, there is little
stopping local districts in pursuing facility caps in Environmental Justice
areas to force the turnover to the cleaner standard.
While the in-state fleet thought they were out of
the woods with the 2010 technology, the worse news is that according to recent research
findings, cold engine operation and deterioration of emissions controls in 2010
engine technology is resulting in much higher in-use emissions than anticipated.
So, CARB has the data and will be able to make a compelling case for the
cleanest standard because, in their collective mind, there is no other pathway.
If the feds try and stop them, they will sue, they will win and we will all be
back to square one, maybe a couple years later, but square one nonetheless. Never a dull moment….
Stay Tuned!
