Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid…

Legislature passes and Governor seals the future fate of transportation in California.

While cap and trade has been kicked down the road until the legal dust settles, the state of California is focusing their air quality sights on the transportation industry. Sacramento has been very busy committing to GHG reductions through legislation while the regulatory apparatus is waiting in the wings to begin the scorched earth policy that is Air Quality regulatory development here in California. Meanwhile, on a local level, a whole other cap and trade program may emerge as the perfect cover for a second forced truck turnover across the state.

It is no secret that unique emissions challenges exist within the air districts across California, especially the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD). A major focus for SCAQMD and other metropolitan regions are oxides of nitrogen (NOx), a basic precursor to smog and something that is directly emitted from practically every vehicle out there, especially trucks.

The state of California has made NOx a priority after having had tackled the pesky Diesel Particulate Matter (DPM) problem with a slew of regulatory measures, aimed most recently at the on-road transportation industry, dating all the way back to the 90’s. Transportation has always been a major contributor to emissions, and with ever tightening ambient air quality standards that are set by the federal government, it is obvious that the industry would be the target of strict control measures now and well, forever.

Many measurers are currently in effect and being enforced on the transportation sector here in California. Beyond existing in-use measurers, the state has its own diesel fuel blend and has very recently petitioned the federal government for a cleaner federal diesel engine standard. California may also have buy in from 11 to 13 other states to also require the engine standard once it is all said and done. All the while, lurking in the shadows of the existing state regulatory lexicon is a whole new set of potential standards, both up front regulatory measures and backdoor turnover requirements. The leviathan never rests.  

At the local level, SCAQMD is embarking upon a mission to ratchet down on facility operators to monitor and control emissions from any facility associated with transportation, e.g. warehouses, seaports, airports, railyards etc, operating in the South Coast. The concept, known as a “facility cap” (FC), will be forced upon particular locations that fall within the covered facility definition, and depending on proximity to sensitive receptors, emissions levels will be capped appropriately.

In other words, equipment operating at a facility will count towards an overall emissions profile. Every diesel or gasoline or jet fuel or otherwise emitting engine will all be counted, if an operator gets close to the cap, activity may have to be curtailed or the facility operator will face fines or sanctions or public shaming or all of the above. All of the specifics will be determined once the SCAQMD Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) is adopted in December.

Nevertheless there seems to be a clear commitment to control and cap emission at freight facilities, continuously. Incentives and other grant or voucher type programs have been suggested, but without serious public subsidies, some operators may find themselves looking for a buyout just to get out of debt and away from the clean air tornado. Because of course, it is always a question of money, not necessarily how much, but who's paying?

Part of the FC scheme may include something similar to a cap and trade program. In fact, it will be exactly like a cap and trade program. It will likely be a forced participation; at least the cap part will be, with covered facility operators left with little or any choice but to participate by meeting the standards or buying their way to more time. 

With the massive NOx reductions being sought in the SCAQMD and really across the Central Valley and the Bay Area and Sacramento Valley as well, the only way to get those reductions from the trucking industry is to force a second engine turnover beyond the existing truck and bus standards which are already forcing a full engine turnover in 2023. This turnover could possibly include a renewable natural gas engine platform or at least the cleanest diesel engine technology available to humankind; until something cleaner comes along that is.

This backdoor approach to a forced turnover removes the burden of regulatory scrutiny because it will be a private business merely making the determinations in how they will get below the cap.

You want to do business with that business, then standards will need to be adhered to or, you guessed it, no business (in theory anyway).

Nevertheless, without a truck turnover, it is unlikely the cap can be maintained. The bar is already so low with the existing PM and NOx control technology that they will have to go lower with zero or near zero emission engines (read: Electric etc..) to maintain levels below the cap. Adding more H2O to the grease fire is the fact that in all likelihood the cap will become stricter as the years wear on.  

Of course, the lower you go, no matter how well intentioned, like a limbo contest at the senior center, someone is going to get hurt.

Likely, the SCAMQD will be sued over the whole thing. Despite the “business friendly” tone of the SCAQMD Board as of late, many groups are already gearing up for a major legal battle if SCAMQD moves forward with a facility cap.

Of course all of this fits directly in line with the “Moonbeam Daydream”. No, not your uncle’s psychedelic jam band from the 70’s, but the Governor’s full frontal assault on emissions and greenhouse gasses (GHG) from the transportation industry, better known as Executive order B-32-15. CARB has been tapped as the headliner for this bureaucratic love fest that is combining the forces of agencies across the state to create the ultimate super group that will change the face of transportation in California and by doing so, solidify the Governor’s low carbon vision now and forever.

Between the new commitments in recently signed SB32 to reduce GHG down to 40% below 1990 levels, the new engine standard petition, the facility cap proposal and the logic defying efforts of CARB through their mobile source strategy in the Statewide Implementation Plan (SIP), the transportation industry across the country should take notice.

There needs to be a concerted effort to fully recognize the magnitude of what is happening here in California. It is getting serious. Or wait, it is getting even MORE serious, much more serious, indeed.

Stay Tuned!